While there is no incumbent running in the race for Illinois’ 10th Congressional District, Dan Seals, may conceivably benefit from name recognition similar to that of an incumbent. Conventional wisdom infers that there is an advantage for the candidate whom voters are most “familiar” with. Studies show that voters recognize candidates’ names much more readily than they recall names. Media coverage on this race has consistently conveyed the message that since Seals is running for the third consecutive time, voters are more likely to recognize his name at the polls than his opponent, Dold, even if they cannot recall either name.
This is a major disadvantage to novice Bob Dold who lacks any name recognition that his opponent Seals has accumulated over the years. Studies on voter partisanship have concluded that, on average, more than half of House voters defected from their party to candidates who are more familiar. This accurately corresponds to Seals’ lead in the polls and gain of endorsements formerly in support of Republican Representative Mark Kirk.
Also, independent voters vote for the “better-known” candidate about 84% of the time in House races. Since this race is a tossup as well as one of the most crucial open seats in the Nation, the independent voters are the pivotal factor that will tilt the election one way or the other.
Dold’s campaign has recognized that, as a candidate, his position on national issues is one of the few ways to sway independent voters. This article on Dold outlines the tactic; since nearly 30% of the voters in Illinois’ 10th District are Jewish, Dold polished his pro-Israel credentials when he made his first trip to Israel in May 2010. However, a recent debate on October 7th between the two candidates revealed that Seals holds the same views on Israel as Dold. Many of the individuals who attended this debate believe that Israel is the most important issue, yet they are content with the reality that there are no differences between Dold and Seals on the subject.
Whether or not Dold’s efforts to appeal to voters as a social moderate will overcome voters’ familiarity of Seals as a candidate remains uncertain. This C-SPAN video clip suggests that what we know about voter behavior and partisanship in races for an open House seat offers little insight of election results in the context of Illinois’ 10th Congressional District.
I like that way you used the readings and what we have been covering in class, to form the backbone to your blog. I agree in order to win, you need people to know or at least seen your name before.
ReplyDeleteAlthough Seal definitely has better name recogniton because he has run several times already, do you think the fact that he was unsucessful in these attempts will hurt him in any way?
ReplyDeleteI agree name recognition is very important to voters. People are afraid or don’t trust anything that is unfamiliar to them. Also they do not want to waste their time researching the candidates so that they may become more familiar to them. The voters would rather rely on what is readily available to them and someone they see often.
ReplyDeleteI agree that name recognition is very important but K.B. brings up a good question. I believe even though Seal has better name recognition but I feel its only because he has run several times and was unsuccessful. Therefore his name recognition is negative and rather than help him I feel it will actually hurt him in the election.
ReplyDeleteI also agree that name recognition is very important. It is the reason that the freshman candidate in the election i'm covering is doing so well against the incumbent. I think that Dold's attempt at appealing to the Jewish population was a very creative one although it did not play out as he imagined. Dold will need to come up with other means of winning voters hearts since he is at such a disadvantage with name recognition.
ReplyDelete