Dold combats conventional wisdom on familiar candidates

While there is no incumbent running in the race for Illinois’ 10^th Congressional District, Dan Seals, may conceivably benefit from name recognition similar to that of an incumbent. Conventional wisdom infers that there is an advantage for the candidate whom voters are most “familiar” with. Studies show that voters recognize candidates’ names much more readily than they recall names. Media coverage on this race has consistently conveyed the message that since Seals is running for the third consecutive time, voters are more likely to recognize his name at the polls than his opponent, Dold, even if they cannot recall either name.

      This is a major disadvantage to novice Bob Dold who lacks any name recognition that his opponent Seals has accumulated over the years. Studies on voter partisanship have concluded that, on average, more than half of House voters defected from their party to candidates who are more familiar. This accurately corresponds to Seals’ lead in the polls and gain of endorsements formerly in support of Republican Representative Mark Kirk.

      Also, independent voters vote for the “better-known” candidate about 84% of the time in House races. Since this race is a tossup as well as one of the most crucial open seats in the Nation, the independent voters are the pivotal factor that will tilt the election one way or the other.

      Dold’s campaign has recognized that, as a candidate, his position on national issues is one of the few ways to sway independent voters. This article on Dold outlines the tactic; since nearly 30% of the voters in Illinois’ 10^th District are Jewish, Dold polished his pro-Israel credentials when he made his first trip to Israel in May 2010. However, a recent debate on October 7^th between the two candidates revealed that Seals holds the same views on Israel as Dold. Many of the individuals who attended this debate believe that Israel is the most important issue, yet they are content with the reality that there are no differences between Dold and Seals on the subject.

      Whether or not Dold’s efforts to appeal to voters as a social moderate will overcome voters’ familiarity of Seals as a candidate remains uncertain. This C-SPAN video clip suggests that what we know about voter behavior and partisanship in races for an open House seat offers little insight of election results in the context of Illinois’ 10^th Congressional District. 

Candidate plays dress-up; Dold as a ‘moderate’

Despite what CQ Politics says about this race being a complete toss-up, it is apparent that this district leans slightly Democrat. Expectedly so, Bob Dold has been persistent on identifying himself as a social moderate in attempt to gain the votes of at least, the independent voters. Dold’s campaign strategy has been to target the voters that he needs to win and build a reputation among those voters as a socially moderate candidate. Yet media sources reveal sloppy efforts by Dold’s campaign workers to convey this message.

A recent article in the Daily Herald discussed a comment made by Dold’s campaign to a tea party group preparing a voters’ guide. The guide, published in The Conservative Magazine of Illinois, said that Dold’s campaign “asks that he not be rated highly by our voter guide (indicating that he wishes to be viewed as a moderate)”.

Of course, Dan Seals has jumped on this opportunity to criticize his opponent for the entry in the voters’ guide. Aviva Gibbs, a spokeswoman for Seals, argued that “If Dold was truly the moderate he claims to be, he wouldn’t have to request a low rating from the tea party, he would simply earn one”.

The strategy of Dold’s campaign is apparent; Republican candidate to appeal to independent and moderate voters in a district leaning slightly Democrat. But appearing is not appealing. Many voters may regard the fact that Dold’s campaign insists that conservative groups do not portray him as a conservative as evidence that Bob Dold is not the moderate candidate that the District needs.

Dold brushed off this charge by the Seals campaign as an effort to get the Republican campaign to “take our eye off the ball”. Mirroring Seals’ criticism, Dold has tried to portray Seals to be more liberal than he campaigns.

It is not to say that Dold’s campaign strategy has failed; the voters of Illinois’ 10^th district may not be swayed by the voters’ guide which gave Dold 3 out of 5 stars as conservative candidate. But then again, will independent and moderate voters read a voter guide that was put out by a conservative group? Do voters actually read voter guides? 

Seals gains support of liberal and conservative PAC's

One month from election day and the candidates for Illinois’ 10^th Congressional District are neck-in-neck when it comes to fundraising but when tallying endorsement and special interest groups, Democratic candidate, Dan Seals, boasts a comfortable lead in this video clip. Republican Bob Dold is struggling to follow in the path of his Republican predecessor, Rep. Mark Kirk who had the support of 12 interest groups that currently endorse Seals.                                                                    

The endorsement groups supporting Republican candidate, Bob Dold, speak great lengths about his efforts to appear to voters as a social moderate. While he supports a constitutional ban on gay marriage, Dold supports some civil rights for same sex couples like entering into contracts and hospital visitation, for example. On the topic of abortion, Dold considers himself “pro-choice” with exceptions. Likewise, Dold asked that the conservative pro-choice interest group, called Eagle Forum, retract its endorsement. Former Congressman John Edward Porter, a popular moderate, now also endorses Dold. Such support should work to Dold’s advantage in his efforts to deter any signs of extremism. The interest groups in support of Dold also reflect him as a fiscal conservative candidate. As I mentioned in a previous blog, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorses Dold as well as Rudy Guiliani and the President of Americans for Tax Reform, Grover Norquist.

Democratic Candidate Dan Seals is endorsed by several socially moderate groups helping him to mirror the values of the voters in Illinois’ 10^th Congressional District. This is one of many articles emphasizing that Seals is completely pro-choice, without any of the stipulations that Dold holds. Supporting Seals are pro-choice organizations including NARAL and Planned Parenthood. Environtmental organizations also endorsing Seals include the Sierra Club and the League of Conservation Voters. It seems like Seals has won over the interest groups concerned with the major issue of job creation and the economy. Several labor unions back Seals such as Communications Workers of District 4, Associated Fire Fighters of Illinois, Illinois Federation of Teachers and several others.

If PAC’s are any indication of who might win the voters’ approval in this “toss-up” election, Dold’s efforts to demonstrate his socially moderate and fiscally conservative character may not be enough.

Want more information? The Chicago Tribune interviewed both candidates on various topics.  http://video.aol.ca/video-detail/endorsement-interview-10th-congressional-district/2103357926/?icid=VIDLRVNWS02