Democratic candidate Dan Seals boasts a small lead over Republican candidate Bob Dold for Illinois’ 10th Congressional District. Polls suggest that this is a Democratic district that voted for its current representative, Republican Mark Kirk, because of his personality and values as a candidate, not partisanship. While Illinois’ closed primary system confines voters within their party, it is clear that Democratic voters in this disctrict were torn between the candidates as Seals defeated Julie Hamos by just 658 votes. But things are looking up for Seals considering that my research finds the majority of articles in support of Seals and little support for Dold.
The 10th district of Illinois, although a tossup, is leaning Democratic as the weeks pass. It is the only Republican represented House district in the U.S. that was won by Obama and Kerry in the respective presidential elections. Moreover, this candidate centered election is allowing third time runner, Dan Seals, to design his platform to satisfy the expectations of his district. The most recent poll showed Seals ahead of Dold by 13 points. Additionally, Seals gained 22% of voters who supported Kirk in 2008 and leads by 5 points for independent voters’ support.
Even the endorsements of this race favor Seals over Dold. One grassroots campaign by the AFL-CIO plans to mail to union members over 2 million documents slamming Republicans like Bob Dold. These mailings are essential since union spending is the vehicle by which Democrats’ intend to counter money spent on the elections by conservative groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Speaking of which, the Chamber of Commerce is one of the few groups that endorse Republican Bob Dold as I have noticed thus far. The Chamber sees Dold as a paradigm of a “fiscally conservative, socially moderate” candidate, but is that how the voters of Illinois’ 10th district view him?
The closed primary system worked to Dold’s advantage in that the voters in search of a “socially moderate” candidate had no other choice but Dold. If the state had an open primary system, Seals would have had no problem gaining early support of independent voters as well as the support of the Republican voters of which he has today.
I really like how you made certain words turn into links because it adds to making your blog look a lot more sophistifacted and advanced. I like how you used numbers & percentages in the second paragraph to have statistics that back up your argument. Also, good job of discussing the topic of primary systems at the end of the blog. By doing so you introduced both the readings and the lecture from class which is important.
ReplyDeleteIt's interesting how a margin can be so small in a primary election, and I look forward to seeing how that will impact the November elections. Will the voters who voted against Seals in the primary look to Dold for a different voice? and how will Dold appeal to Democrats who didn't necessarily agree with Seals' platform? It looks like a lot of political strategy is going to be needed for either candidate to gain a lead in this district.
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