Seals, Dold; Satisf ying Voters’ Concerns and Keeping Party Values

When it comes to partisanship, the voters of Illinois’ 10^th Congressional District are confused as to which party the candidates belong to. Democrat, Dan Seals, and Republican, Bob Dold, are in agreement on several issues and individually portray themselves as deficit and tax hawks yet social moderates in a recent debate. Contrary to the position of their National Parties as spelled out in a Yahoo!News article, both candidates oppose raising taxes and support keeping all of the tax cuts in place under former President George W. Bush which expire at the end of the year. Dold and Seals each campaign to take action on the issue of Medicare fraud. Furthermore, both candidates vow to help small businesses stimulate economic progression.

Social Security is the major issue that Dold and Seals hold different views on. Sponsored by the AARP, the 10^th Congressional District debate focused on the topic of Social Security. Dold has proposed gradually raising the retirement age as a solution to the lack of funds for America’s aging population. Seals is against raising the retirement age and instead proposed cutting retirement payouts to some of the wealthiest Americans who “don’t need” the benefits. Dold told media sources during the primary that he supports allowing Americans to put up to 25% of their Social Security payments into individual bank accounts. Of course it is no surprise that Seals is completely against any type of privatization of Social Security payments.

Clearly both candidates have molded their platforms to please the voters of IL’s 10^th Congressional District. The major concerns of these voters are reflected in the candidates’ ambitious platforms that are equally focused on the economy and creating jobs. The issue of Social Security is where Dan Seals lines up with the national Democratic Party and Bob Dold with the Republican Party. In the next few weeks the candidates, especially Bob Dold who lacks in the polls, need to make their platforms stand out in order to sway voters while still straddling the median voter line. Likewise, if elected, it would be no shock at all to see Dold go back on his word on the issue of tax cuts and follow the G.O.P’s new Contract on America which will very likely devalue tax cuts with major spending and program cuts. Of In any close competition, deception is key.

Seals Inches Ahead; Good Fortune or Political Strategy?

Democratic candidate Dan Seals boasts a small lead over Republican candidate Bob Dold for Illinois’ 10^th Congressional District. Polls suggest that this is a Democratic district that voted for its current representative, Republican Mark Kirk, because of his personality and values as a candidate, not partisanship. While Illinois’ closed primary system confines voters within their party, it is clear that Democratic voters in this disctrict were torn between the candidates as Seals defeated Julie Hamos by just 658 votes. But things are looking up for Seals considering that my research finds the majority of articles in support of Seals and little support for Dold.

The 10^th district of Illinois, although a tossup, is leaning Democratic as the weeks pass. It is the only Republican represented House district in the U.S. that was won by Obama and Kerry in the respective presidential elections. Moreover, this candidate centered election is allowing third time runner, Dan Seals, to design his platform to satisfy the expectations of his district. The most recent poll showed Seals ahead of Dold by 13 points. Additionally, Seals gained 22% of voters who supported Kirk in 2008 and leads by 5 points for independent voters’ support.

Even the endorsements of this race favor Seals over Dold. One grassroots campaign by the AFL-CIO plans to mail to union members over 2 million documents slamming Republicans like Bob Dold. These mailings are essential since union spending is the vehicle by which Democrats’ intend to counter money spent on the elections by conservative groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Speaking of which, the Chamber of Commerce is one of the few groups that endorse Republican Bob Dold as I have noticed thus far. The Chamber sees Dold as a paradigm of a “fiscally conservative, socially moderate” candidate, but is that how the voters of Illinois’ 10^th district view him?

The closed primary system worked to Dold’s advantage in that the voters in search of a “socially moderate” candidate had no other choice but Dold. If the state had an open primary system, Seals would have had no problem gaining early support of independent voters as well as the support of the Republican voters of which he has today.

Illinois' 10th Congressional District

The 2010 election for the Representative of Illinois’ Tenth Congressional District is the Nation’s only absolute tossup for a currently Republican seat. This District’s seat is crucial to the Democratic Party’s effort to maintain majority in the House. The present Representative, Republican Mark Kirk, is running for Senate, thus enabling a highly competitive race between Democratic candidate Dan Seals and Republican candidate Bob Dold. This District has elected a Democrat to Congress only once since the Civil War, however, the fact that Seals is running for the third time is advantageous for the Democratic Party. Comprised of Chicago suburbs, Illinois’ 10^th District is home to several Fortune 500 companies and is one of the wealthiest congressional districts in the U.S. today. Historically notable at both the national and local levels, this particular election prompts widespread media coverage and extensive campaign spending.

Despite its Republican tendency in Congress, this district has voted for the democratic candidate in the past three Presidential elections; a byproduct of candidate centered congressional elections. Democratic candidate Dan Seals is well known in his district and perhaps, has a more promising chance of winning the seat than when he ran against Kirk. Seals has molded his platform to satisfy the expectations and match the ideals of the typical voter in Illinois’ 10^th district. Media coverage and campaigning commercials on Seals have helped to build his reputation and visibility to voters since 2001 and are expected to be highly influential in the final weeks before Election Day.

Presumably, republican candidate Bob Dold is a suitable match for the District’s republican standard; fiscally conservative and socially moderate. Both candidates hold similar platforms addressing jobs and the economy as well as Social Security. On the issue of healthcare, however, Dold strongly opposes the recently passed plan while Seals believes that expanding coverage is a necessity. Yet Seals and Dold share the view that cost reduction and quality healthcare are vital elements of the healthcare plan that demand immediate attention.

Will Dan Seals’ reputation and perfected platform be enough to outshine new comer Bob Dold in this candidate centered election? Or will partisan loyalty trump candidate platforms to continue the Republican reign of the 10^th Congressional District of Illinois?