G.O.P. projected to allow legislative gridlock until 2012

Like every election in American history, the 2010 mid-term election has its implications and so-called “consequences”. However, the drastic Republican takeover of government that many Americans, who were clearly not Political Science majors, expect to happen in the next two years is unrealistic. Though one aspect of politics in which Republican domination is inevitable is redistricting. David Mayhew argues that reelection is the main goal of members of Congress as it is absolutely essential in order to achieve any other goals. One can expect minimal policy changes by Congress until 2012 since Republicans Control only the House.

As I discussed in my last blog, the Republicans will control the redrawing of Congressional districts this year. This is arguably the only area in which the Republican party will undoubtedly have a major impact on future elections. Since extensive gerrymandering is very likely, according to political consultant Brett Di Resta, the problem of partisan politics will swell. Districts will be redrawn to favor incumbent Republicans over the incumbent Democrats and Republican Representatives will be less likely to make policy compromises.

With reelection on the mind, the newly elected Republican legislatures are probably not going to be wasting time and money on passing or implementing new legislation. Members of Congress will get credit for taking a position, not passing innovative legislation. Completely ignoring the pressure to compromise would satisfy the major promise of Republican campaigns; oppose the enormous overreach by Obama and the Democrats that led to increased spending, debt, bailouts, etc. An interesting article in The Daily Caller pointed out that most Americans don’t realize that the next 2 years are not about how much the Republicans can accomplish. These next two years will really be about Republicans limiting the damage that Obama and the Senate can do.

Congress after the 2010 mid-term election

It is obvious that President Obama and his fellow Democrats will be focusing on preserving their legislative achievements while the Republicans in the House intend to reverse, or at the very least, reduce it. As this article explains, the make-up of the 112^th Congress leaves slim chances of overriding a presidential veto. Likewise, major policy issues will likely see two years of gridlock. The only policy changes that are likely to be made with this stalemate will be the essential ones like appropriations.

For all those Republicans out there who are gung-ho about making major policy comebacks this time around, I’m sorry to burst your bubble but you’ll probably have to wait until 2012 before you can claim any political bragging rights.