Victory for Dold in Illinois' 10th Congressional District

The race for the seat in Illinois’ 10^th Congressional District was a tossup until the very last vote was cast. The seat had been held for 3 consecutive terms by Republican Mark Kirk who is now Illinois’ Senator-elect. This particular race was significant at both the local and national levels in that it was one of the only open seats that the Democratic Party had a shot at gaining this election season. Up until the week before the election, polls had consistently shown an extremely close race between the two candidates with the Democratic candidate, Dan Seals in the lead by a very small margin.

            Dan Seals was endorsed by Vice President Biden. This was a pivotal election in that the Nation was shifting away from the Presidential party and toward the Right. Likewise, the Vice President as a constituent was not much help for Seals who took 49% of the votes and lost by only 5,006 votes!

            The 10^th District’s Representative-elect, Bob Dold, utilized his relationship with Mark Kirk as a way in. Dold was competing with the name recognition that Seals had gained from the two previous times he ran for this seat and used the popularity of his successor to his advantage. The voters of the 10^th district clearly like Kirk enough to elect him into Congress 3 times and now into the Senate, so of course teaming up with him would be beneficial. Dold was also endorsed by several other political hotshots listed on his website.

            The Democrats of Illinois’ 10^th Congressional District had high hopes for this election, and through it all Dan Seals’ campaign and self-presentation seemed to be the most fitting for this Dirstrict, but Dold rode in on the coat tale of Kirk.

More money equals more votes?

            If campaign spending and fund raising is any indication of election outcomes, the candidates for the 10th district of Illinois have done so relentlessly. As candidates from one of the wealthiest districts in the nation, both Dan Seals and Bob Dold have had few problems keeping up with the others’ campaign finances. In fact, this district is apparently the only district in Illinois where the candidates raised the same, or even close to the same amount of money for their own campaigns.

            As reported October 13th, the candidates were neck-and-neck, each raised approximately $2.5 million however Seals spent about $2.2 million while Dold had spent about $1.7 million. History shows that winning candidates by and large outspend the losing candidate. The closeness of this race as suggested by the polls is also indicated by the dollar signs. 

            The most recent FiveThirtyEight Forecast says that Seals has a 59.4% chance of winning the seat but not by much. The same source predicted that Seals will win by 1.9% of the votes. These numbers are so close that despite political conventional wisdom and margin of error set aside, this election is not one that I would be able to place a confident bet on. Nonetheless, these projections are parallel to Seals’ narrow lead in campaign finance. 

            Additionally, OpenSecrets.com revealed that Seals raised roughly $200,000 more from local contributors than Dold. On a national level, Dold’s contributors were more widespread than that of Seals. Which of these leads is favorable to winning a congressional election you ask? Local contributions. The contributions made at local levels are an arguably accurate display of local support for one candidate over another. While money from contributors in New York and Washington, D.C. is useful, local support is essential in a congressional election. Overall, the widespread support for Republican Congressional candidates is irrelevant and meaningless if local support favors the Democratic candidate.

            The money raised by both candidates amount to impressing numbers both in size and proportion to each other. Historical trends hint that the bigger spender is more often than not the winner. Election Day is one week away and the most recent projections are lined up with these historical implications; Seals holds a narrow but persistent lead over Dold. The rest is up to the voters. 

            At this point, the results of this election are more likely to be altered by a bad storm, a huge sale at the local mall, or traffic than anything else.